Emerging Trends in Low-Carbon Rules for International Trade and Their Implications for the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has consistently upheld green development as a fundamental principle and core philosophy, effectively promoting industrial green transformation, new energy development, environmental governance, and biodiversity conservation in BRI countries. The BRI has emerged as one of the world’s most important platforms for green cooperation and a key global public good. However, new trends in low-carbon rules for international trade are emerging with introducing policies such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and carbon labeling for imported and exported goods by the EU, the U.S., and Japan. These trends include cutthroat competition for first-mover advantage, the formation of coalitions for low-carbon trade barriers, the diversification of trade restrictions, the expansion of corporate low-carbon procurement, and the politicization of carbon-related trade rules. These evolving rules exert pressure on BRI countries' trade, industrial development, and new energy development through trade compliance demands, industrial carbon lock-in, carbon pricing limitations, and new energy integration controls, impacting the pace of green BRI advancement. To address these challenges, BRI countries must capitalize on the CBAM transition period by implementing coordinated measures, including collaborative development of carbon accounting standards, mutual recognition of carbon pricing mechanisms, and standardized carbon disclosure protocols, while participating in international rule-making processes to establish a low-carbon trade rule system that aligns with developmental realities and serves the collective interests of the majority of countries.