Power Transition and Geoeconomic Connectivity in Eurasia on the 55th Anniversary of Türkiye-China Diplomatic Relations

This article examines Türkiye-China diplomatic relations on the 55th anniversary of their establishment through the lenses of power transition, geoeconomic connectivity, and economic interdependence. Its central question is whether Türkiye remains primarily a transit country within Eurasian production and logistics networks integrated with China, or whether it has made measurable progress toward becoming a joint production hub. The study is based on a structured qualitative document analysis covering 1971-2026. Official policy documents, Türkiye’s foreign trade data, World Bank corridor reports, investment announcements, and peer-reviewed studies are compared using indicators of logistics capacity, the technological composition of trade, foreign direct investment, local value added, and technology transfer. The findings show that Türkiye’s logistical position has strengthened, but its production-hub function has not become institutionalized. In 2023, Türkiye exported USD 3.3 billion to China, imported USD 44.98 billion, and recorded a trade deficit of USD 41.7 billion. Chinese foreign direct investment stock was approximately USD 9 billion, further demonstrating the persistence of trade asymmetry. The World Bank projects that Middle Corridor freight volume could reach 11 million tonnes by 2030 if the necessary measures are implemented. The article operationalizes the distinction between a transit country and a joint production hub through measurable indicators and links connectivity’s stabilizing effects to balanced interdependence, institutionalization, and positive expectations about future cooperation. Türkiye currently occupies an intermediate position dominated by its transit function; transformation depends on investments that generate local sourcing, joint R&D, technology transfer, and exports to third-country markets.